Don't try to beat the bookies.
Welcome to MKK Racing
I want to make money from gambling (it's tax-free in the UK),
but I'm not an expert at horse racing, nor do I want to spend hours
every day analysing form and statistics to make selections.
I want a system to gamble without emotion.
No 'gut feelings', no wild picks, no betting on my favourite team.
I call this 'emotional betting' and the big winners are the bookmakers, not us.
I want a computer to do the picking for us, so it's quick.
Consistently picking winners to make a profit is difficult.
Bookmakers make millions every year.
So, instead, I want to copy the bookmakers.
So.... I created a mathematical model that does just that.
I feed in the day's races and the model picks the horses .
You can subscribe to receive the daily tips of which horses to 'lay'.
MKK Racing's performance
This is the performance of our most profitable model, from the 1st June 2023 to now.
I have five active models but I only give you the daily selections for the most profitable model.
I only use the most profitable when gambling my own money.
Profit and loss dashboard
Monday, 4 December 2023
100% success rate.
Loser ...Button Bay
Loser ...Miss Dynamic
Loser ...Polar Princess
Loser ...Pour Me A Drink
Loser ...Zhang Fei
Big spikes in the bankroll, just mean money has been deposited.
The cumulative profit values are not affected.
I charge a monthly fee to provide you with the daily tips of which horses to lay. That's it.
I don't sell you expensive online training courses.
I don'sell you other services you don't need.
(you can buy our MKK branded merchandise if you want).
I will never ask you to send money to fund your account. I am not running an investment fund.
I'm not going to make you rich overnight. This is a system that requires patience to grow your betting account gradually.
I am not a social media 'influencer' living in Eastern Europe.
I produce daily tips of horses to lay, using statistics to eliminate as much risk as possible.
I try to exclude as many horses as possible that could win.
I don't want winners.
I don't want to pay out.
I use a platform called 'Patreon' who specialise at hosting subscription services like ours, enabling us to send you daily tips via email and process your card payments securely. I don't handle your card details. I pay Patreon to do that using their payment processing security.
What do I provide?
Every morning, I send the day's recommendations.
Every evening, I update our stats and charts on this page, so you can see our performance using our money
Membership costs just
£15/month inc VAT
Click the Patreon logo below to go to our page.
Create an account on patreon.com
Add your payment card.
Subscribe to our service.
And, that's it! You're in!
You can cancel at any time (via patreon.com)
There is no minimum contract length.
What is lay betting?
Lay betting means betting on something NOT to happen.
Backing is when you want something TO happen.
Traditionally, you could only 'back' a horse to win, on the racetrack, in the betting shop and then online. The bookmaker would take the risk if the horse won and would pay out, but if your 'back' bet lost, they kept your stake.
It was like this for years, until online betting exchanges appeared.
With traditional bookmakers, it's you against them. The more you win, the more the bookmaker loses. Win too much and you could find your account being suspended or even closed.
Betting exchanges work differently. They offer odds to 'back' horses to win, but also offer odds to 'lay' horses to lose. The exchange puts backers and layers together, one against the other, but never against the exchange. You want the horse to lose (like a bookmaker). The other person wants the horse to win. If the horse loses, you keep their stake (like the bookmaker). If the horse wins, you payout (like the bookmaker). Did you notice the recurring phrase, "like the bookmaker"? Laying bets through an exchange gives you the opportunity to behave like a bookmaker.
Our model finds horses every day to lay using an exchange.
Understanding the betting exchange screen
We are using matchbook.com to explain lay betting.
Betting exchange screens may look complicated with multiple numbers and colours, but it can be explained quite easily.
The first thing that stands out are the blue and pink boxes.
The blue boxes represent what’s available to ‘back’.
Back betting is where you want something to happen, e.g. you want the horse to win.
The bold pink column represents what’s available to ‘lay’.
Lay betting is where you are betting on something NOT happening, e.g. you don’t want the horse to win.
We are only interested in lay betting and pick horses that we DON’T want to win.
Look at the numbers in the pink boxes.
The bold numbers are the odds
the smaller numbers below shows how much money is available in the market for each horse.
Exchange operators match gamblers who want to back and who want to lay together.
The monetary values show you how big that market is for each horse. You don’t really need to worry about the liquidity value.
Focus on the bold PINK column for lay bets.....
You can see that betting exchanges use digital odds, instead of the traditional fractional odds that betting is known for. Once you get used to digital odds, it's actually quicker and easier to compare the odds between horses, e.g.
The 1st favourite, 'Light Em Up Nigel', is 3.8.
The 2nd favourite, 'Pepe Le Mono', is 3.85
The 3rd favourite, 'Flat White', is 4.4
The 4th favourite, 'Lock Out', is 7.4
... so you can see the odds lengthening. The market expects this to be a tight race between the first two horses, 'Light Em Up Nigel' and"Pepe Le Mono'.
Watch the video made by Matchbook...
"Understanding the Matchbook betting exchange layout"
Placing a lay bet on matchbook
We are using matchbook.com to explain how to place a 'lay' bet, but the process is the same for the other betting exchanges; betdaq.com, smarkets.com and betfair.com.
The following instructions tell you how to place a lay bet, but the process is the same for any other betting exchange.
Find the race you want to bet on.
You will see numbers in blue boxes and numbers in pink boxes.
If you are viewing the odds on a desktop computer with a larger screen than a mobile phone, you will see two more sets of numbers in white boxes, either side of the blue and pink boxes. Ignore them. Focus on the pink boxes only.
Click on the pink box for the horse that you want to lay.
In this example, I click on the pink lay box for 'A Cheap Thrill'.
The betslip then appears on the right hand side and I can either enter my stake or the liability. The STAKE (£2.63) is what you stand to win if the horse doesn’t win. The LIABILITY (£20) is how much you stand to lose if the horse does win and you have to pay-out.
To make life easy, so that you can use the same value for every race, I enter the amount in the LIABILITY box that I am willing to lose. The app then calculates the stake for me. This way, I control how much I could lose for each race.
How much should your LIABILITY be? See below.
Watch the video made by Matchbook...
"Placing a lay bet on Matchbook"
If you are happy, then click the ‘place bet’ button at the bottom of the screen, to make your bet.
Confirm and then the exchange will match you bet with someone who thinks the same horse will win.
And that’s it.
The exchange will take the value of your liability and hold it in escrow. If the horse loses, you get the liability amount back and you are awarded the stake, minus the exchanges commission.
Wait for the race to run and smile when your horse loses.
So, now you are probably thinking I can lose a lot more than I win.
But think about
how often the favourite horses do NOT win their race,
using our model we work hard to deselect the horses that might win and target those horses with the greatest statistical chance of NOT winning, and
bookmakers make millions of pounds of year collecting those losing bets, whilst still paying out when a customer’s bet wins. We are behaving like the bookmaker, not the gambler, expecting many more horses to lose where we collect the stakes, that to win and we have to pay out.
How much should you bet?
The honest answer is, "the maximum you should bet, is the maximum you are prepared to lose". I know that sounds easy, but you'll know when you bet an amount that you don't feel comfortable with. Your heart rate goes up, your palms get sweaty. That's no fun. So, like the mathematical way I select which horses to lay, I have a mathematical model that calculates how much to bet - and it's very simple.
How much you bet is calculated as a proportion of how much money you have in your betting account - your 'bankroll'.
There are then two ways you can decide how much to bet
The 'Fixed' Bankroll
The 'Racheted' Bankroll (I use this method)
The 'Fixed' Bankroll
This is where you fix the LABILITY VALUE at an amount you feel comfortable with. You choose how much you are prepared to lose on each race, considering I do our best not to pick winners, so I don't want to pay-out.
This method makes it easy to control how much you gamble on each race and also, when your bankroll exceeds your starting investment, you can withdraw money and enjoy your winnings.
Set the LIABILITY RATE at 3% of your bankroll.
Imagine you deposited £500 into your betting exchange account.
Your LIABILITY AMOUNT is then £15 (3% of £500). This is the value that you enter on the betslip in the 'LIABILITY' box.
The benefit of this method is...
you control how much you risk losing, so it doesn't get out of control.
your liability remain the same every day, so it's easy to remember what number to type in.
setting your LIABILITY RATE at 3% of your starting bankroll, means you can can afford to pay out 33 winning horses in a row before you have lost all your money - but consider that our model avoids picking winners.
If at some point, you feel comfortable raising the LIABILITY VALUE, recalculate it again at a higher percentage of your current bankroll, but remember, as your potential profits go up, so will the amount you pay-out on winners.
Personally, I find 3% a comfortable liability level.
The Rachet System
This is the system that I use when I gamble with my own money.
I want to grow the profits as the bankroll increases, yet keeping the same risk level. It is similar to the 'Fixed' Bankroll method, except I replaced 'Fixed' with 'Racheted'.
Each time the 'highest' bankroll value goes up, the LIABILITY AMOUNT is recalculated at 3% again.
I start with £500. I've chosen the LIABILITY RATE as 3%, so the LIABILITY AMOUNT is £15.
Let's assume after Day 1, I've made £50 profit.
Because the 'highest' bankroll has increased from £500 to £550, I recalculate the LIABILITY VALUE at 3% of the new 'highest' bankroll of £550 = £16.50
Imagine at the end of Day 2, I've made another £50 profit.
My 'highest' bankroll is now £600, so I recalculate the LIABILITY VALUE as 3% of £600 = £18
Oh dear, I lost £20, so my 'current' bankroll has fallen from its highest level of £600 to £580.
This time, I DON'T recalculate the LIABILITY VALUE. I let it continue as 3% of the 'highest' bankroll, not 3% of the 'current' bankroll amount.
So, my LIABILITY VALUE remains at £18 (3% of £600).
The advantage of this system is that your profits will grow faster because we are effectively compounding the profits each time the 'highest' bankroll value goes up. The LIABILITY VALUE (and consequently the STAKE VALUE) goes up, but the risk level remains constant. 3% in this example.
I've found that 3% feels a comfortable level of how much money I am prepared to lose on each race, as a proportion of my bankroll, but you can choose your own LIABILITY VALUE. Increase it if you want higher returns and higher risk. Lower it if you want to reduce payouts and the impact on your bankroll of winners.